thinking out loud

my reports

l;assaljfaos

Hello Friends

Went for a bit of a drive from Avalon to Narrabeen and not much to report. There are a couple very small peaks at the exposed stretches, but nothing much above the waist high mark, and that’s only on the really big ones.

The buoy data isn’t too encouraging at the moment either. Only a metre or so dead south at about 8 seconds out at sea. And it’s smaller down the coast from here.

The swell models are still showing an increase from the south tomorrow and Tuesday. So here’s hoping it gets into the surfable range, because after about Wednesday, they are pretty much all showing dire flatness through at least next Monday… gaah.

Hope your Sunday is developing well and let’s keep those fingers crossed for tomorrow…

Hello Friends,

Up before dawn this morning, so my initial report is based on, ahem, remote sensing technology - ie, the MHL buoys. They don’t look good. Overnight, the average period has slumped from around 9 seconds to just 6. The chop out at sea is around the metre mark and the direction has gone from SE to SSW. Just to add to the list of woes, Huey’s got the wind around to the west at 10-20 kts. That ought to smooth away any rampant ripples that might otherwise have trickled in to south-facing beaches this morning.

From the look of the buoys off to the south, I’d say we’re stuck with this miserable situation through today at least. About the only straw of hope in those merciless west winds is some 10 sec peak period stuff hitting the Eden buoy every now and then. The forecast models are saying that we should be seeing some 10 sec, metre high south swell from late today into Sunday, so just maybe there will be a little something into the surfable range around dusk.

Longer term, those same models are currently showing a very gradual building trend from tomorrow through about Tuesday, before it gradually slumps back to pretty close to flat by the end of the week. On present reckoning, that Tuesday peak could see 2-3 metres of dead south swell at a respectable 10 sec., along with light S-SW winds.

Get yourself up to a bit of good, have some fun on the way through, and stay happy as you can!