thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

Calm, glassy surface conditions to begin Saturday in Sydney. Sadly, there’s almost nothing on the surf front. The swell is out of the south at about a metre with an average period of just under 8 seconds. That means knee to waist high at south exposed spots, but it’ll be pretty weak thanks to the short average period.

The Bureau says we’ll get a stong S-SW change through the place this morning. Wind is due to kick up into the 20-30 kt range at the peak of the change and then they’re set to back off to around 20kts by this evening.

Unfortunately the change is not likely to have a positive impact on the surf prospects. If anything, the period will probably get shorter, so even though the average swell height will increase into the 2-3 metre range, the consequences for surfers are not likely to be interesting.

A few days ago, the long range forecasts were slightly hopeful for Monday-Tuesday, but  now the call is for average periods across the week ahead to range from 7-9 seconds and swell to be in the 1-3 metre zone. Our best hope is that tomorrow the swell period stretches out a little as the change vanishes up the coast from here. Sunday’s winds are supposed to be SW-S 15-20 kts, easing to 8-13 in the afternoon, but swinging to the SE.

Typical spring conditions.

Go well!

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