thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

Swell from the low up north has reached Sydney in force. There’s plenty of size, but it’s not too clean and despite the  11 sec period, it seems rather fat. The MHL buoy is showing the primary swell direction as east by east nor east. Size at sea is averaging around three metres, but I’d expect that to increase at least a bit more because it’s close to 5 metres from Coffs north.

I didn’t see anyone in the water from Northy to Collaroy and there was maybe one person at Dee Why point when I checked. The only place I saw people in the water was south of Longy bombies.

Could be a day for watching at most places.

The outlook is for the swell to continue all week, so here’s hoping it begins to clean up a bit for us.

Wind today will be out of the NE at 15-20 kts or so by afternoon.

Go well!

Hello Friends,

The first hint of an improvement to surf prospects for the Sydney region is now visible along north east facing stretches.

The biggest stuff I saw at around 0930 were some chest high things at north Collaroy. I’d guess that it’d be as big up the Narrabeen end. About an hour later, I checked Dee Why beach and while you can see the little line out of the ene, size is in the near-pathetic range (ie about waist high on the better ones).

Wind is definitely a factor. The Bureau says we’re in for a standard issue summer day (ie, 15-20 kts of NE’r in the afternoon), but they’re also agreeing with the wave forecast models and are calling for an increase in average wave size.

Right now we’ve got a 1-2 metres at 7-9 seconds offshore from Sydney. The buoy is showing the main swell direction as being ENE. Meanwhile, up the coast, things are considerably bigger. They’ve shut the beaches along the Goldie and in the surf zones north from there. Winds are howling at gale force up that way, so your best options will clearly be the well protected ones. I’d be guessing you won’t be getting too many waves to yourself at Noosa and similar.

Outlook for the week ahead remains very good. The models are showing a continuous supply of solid east swell from well south of Sydney to the northernmost of Australia’s east coast surf zones. If the forecasts are correct, there should be waves for around a week! Definitely one of the best looking forecasts I’ve seen since winter.

Have yourself a very good one!

Hello Friends,

Not happening in Sydney or pretty much anywhere south of about Ballina, but everything is pointing toward solid energy heading our way from late Sunday night.

Saturday doesn’t look like being of much interest to surfers in the Sydney region and I reckon there’s only a slight chance of it being much better tomorrow at this time. About the biggest thing I saw was a knee high set at north Collaroy. The Dee Why to Longy stretch was just about perfectly flat.

Today’s marine forecast is calling for light N-NE winds in the morning, increasing to 18-23 kts this afternoon. Put the time in with family and friends because you may be somewhat distracted from about Monday onward.

The swell models are looking very interesting from late Sunday through to the end of the week. Sydney doesn’t look as though it’ll be getting the best of the size, but if the forecasts play out as the models predict, I don’t think there will be too many complaints.  The computer forecasts are calling for a week of 6 metre 11 sec east to ese swell for the far north coast, while they’re currently calling for only 2-3 down here in Sydney. But you folk along those northern stretches will be looking for options out of the strong SE’r, while we’re apparently set for generally light winds down here in Sydney.

This is one of the best looking forecasts I’ve seen since winter.

Go well, one and all!