thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

Well, as anticipated yesterday, the energy levels have dropped away to just about nothin’ overnight. Yesterday evening there were a few tiny little lines coming in at dusk when I went for a walk down near Long Reef. The biggest ones were struggling to get to waist high, so it wasn’t too amazing. However, I’d be very, very surprised if there was anything to surf there now. The MHL buoy is showing a metre of SSW windswell at an utterly gutless 6 seconds.

The Bureau’s call for the next couple days is for the wind to kick up as a strong low pushes into Bass Strait tomorrow. This is expected to cause strong to gale force winds over the southern and central waters. So, we can expect strong NW winds tomorrow, swinging WSW overnight into Monday. For today the wind will be WSW in the morning and then swing NW this afternoon.

So, it looks as though we’re going to have to put up with utter tininess through Monday in Sydney. However, things look quite a bit more interesting for Tuesday and Weds. The models are showing an intense low swinging across the Tasman early in the week. As it heads over to NZ, we could get some  fun size swell at south-friendly spots. And it looks as though the wind shouldn’t be too bad either, particularly on Weds morning when the models are showing a combo of 10s 3 metre south swell with light SSW wind.

Have yourself a top old Saturday!

Hello Friends,

I’d say NSW is in the grip of flatness. However, it doesn’t look as though it should last too long. If we’re lucky, things will turn around in the Sydney region in another couple days. For now however, the outlook is for a breezy day with winds from the W-NW peaking around 30-40 kts before they back off a touch this evening.

Out at sea there really isn’t much going on according to the MHL buoy. Average period is a choppy 5 seconds at less than a metre - the direction hardly matters.

My magazine has come around again, so I’m on that case pretty heavily and therefore didn’t get to the look-ahead. I’ll try to pull something together today if possible, but no promises!

Have yourself a top old time with whatever comes your way!

Hello Friends,

There’s no way around the facts, it’s just plain flat in Sydney. We aren’t alone either, the entire east coast of Australia is copping this treatment. According to the latest offshore data, swell at sea off Sydney is only a metre on average at just 5 seconds apart. It’s out of the north, for whatever that’s worth.

But…

Here’s what the Bureau’s saying: “A low is expected to develop in the western Tasman Sea behind this change on Sunday. Gale force south to southwest winds are expected to develop along the coastal waters as the Low develops on Sunday.”

Brace yourselves for lots of wind, starting this morning as the winds freshen up from the NW at 20-30kts.

And tomorrow should be downright hostile to surfing interests. How does 30-35kts of SW wind grab ya? And cold. And the odd shower. Should be a good day - to stay inside!

But that wind will do us some good because by Monday we should be seeing some swell in protected corners (although the wind’ll still be a factor). By mid-week it looks as though the factors could be coming together for us. You can check out my latest thoughts on this by clicking on the link to my latest vidcast (see right).

Go well with your day and have a top old weekend!