thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

Did you jag any of that long period pulse yesterday afternoon? As anticipated it started to push up from about 2pm on and by dusk there were some sizable sets at south facing beaches. This morning finds the situation somewhat reduced in intensity. Where yesterday arvo there’d been chest to head high plus sets (jump over to www.realsurf.tv to see the clips I shot from the water), this morning sees the average size considerably reduced. Looks like waist high maybe. The beachy is bigger though and I’d expect you could still find the odd overhead takeoff at south facing beaches.

The average size and swell direction haven’t changed much since mid-day yesterday when they were showing 2 metres from the SSE. Average period at the last report from the buoy was 11 second, but there is some peak stuff at around 14 sec in the mix.

And, according to the Bureau, this long period stuff should re-appear from time to time over the next few days as a series of intense lows pass through our swell window in the southern ocean.

Wind is set to be 13-18 kts from the WNW this morning, increasing to 18-23 this afternoon. And, that should co-incide with another long period pulse’s arrival.

I revisted my long range wrap after some technical difficulties day before yesterday. You can have a listen via the utterz widget down the page on the right.

The short version is that it looks like we should have waves through the weekend, but that tomorrow will be pretty windy.

Go well and get lots of waves!

Hello Friends,

Nippy again this morning, but happily there’s a reason to brave the burrrr. At Dee Why, the best waves are up the beach toward Long Reef, but there are a few to be had at the point as well. Size is around the chest to shoulder high mark on the bigger ones at the beach and knee to chest high at the point.

And the good news is that it’s set to possibly improve… dig this from the Bureau’s summary:

A long period southerly swell will develop from the south today in the wake of the Tasman Sea front, and whilst most of the swell will move out into the Tasman Sea there may be sufficient strength in the waves about southern facing beaches to result in some dangerous surf conditions.

As I write this, there is no sign of a change to the period settings for Sydney. Overnight, it dropped back from about 9 to 8 seconds. The size is still around the 1.5 metre mark and the direction is SSE. However, at around midnight, the Eden buoy popped up from an average of 9 to nearly 12 seconds, and the size went from under two to close to 3 metres. That’d be a thumping swell if it holds at those settings up here. Batemans Bay started ramping up around 6 hours later, so, I’d say that swell is  coming our way. My guess is that if we get anything, we should see obvious signs by mid-afternoon, but there could be forerunners arriving late this morning.

I worked up a forecast last night, but I might re-jig it this morning and post it later.

We have a technical issue this morning with our daily pic gallery, so if you’d like to see my pics, you’ll need to jump over to my blog. Naturally our tech guru is frantic at work, so not sure how quickly he’ll be able to get onto it…

Have yourself a top old day and check back because I plan to put up at least one update re this (potential) swell.

Hello Friends,

Did you find waves yesterday? Want some more? Then go back, there should still be a few in the tank for you. The swell and period settings really haven’t changed much in the last 24 hours. It’s down very slightly, but still close to 2 metres on average out at sea. Direction remains from the SE and the period has nudged up ever so slightly into the 9-11 sec range.

Wind is currently W to WNW at around 5-6 kts. The call is for it to swing around to the NE to 8-13 kts later. Could be a few showers around this morning but this afternoon is set to have the odd sunny break.

Your webmaster has been busy at the video editing suite (aka his laptop) and last night I knocked out a few highlights from yesterday around lunchtime at Dee Why point - and I whipped out another scan of the wave models for the week ahead. Thank you for the polite applause!

Outlook is for the waves to continue along at much the same level today, to then gradually decline, but only slightly, into Friday. Then, on Saturday we get another boost of south swell as a vigorous SW change rolls through. So, nearly as I can make out, we have another 7 days of surfable conditions to look forward to. Lovely!

Hope you’ve managed to get out and jag a few. Go well!