thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

Very sad looking down at Dee Why this morning. Just about nothing showing at the point or the beach. I’m reasonably sure you couldn’t surf it with anything under about the 9 foot mark.

MHL’s Sydney buoy is currently showing about a metre of east windswell. The average period is just 8 seconds. As with yesterday, there is some long period stuff in the mix. However, I couldn’t see signs of anything resembling the 11 second period component showing on the buoy data.

Wind is currently out of the NW but the Bureau says it should swing around to the NE this afternoon.

The outlook for the next week in Sydney remains uninspiring. Basically, it looks as though we’ll be lucky to find much of anything above waist high. Maybe the models will be wrong… maybe… but if you had to pick a week to be away from the beach, this might be the one…

Ah well, your correspondent is happy to be back in Sydney again anyway.

Have yourself a top old day, and stay happy!

Hello Friends,

Did you jag any of that long period pulse yesterday afternoon? As anticipated it started to push up from about 2pm on and by dusk there were some sizable sets at south facing beaches. This morning finds the situation somewhat reduced in intensity. Where yesterday arvo there’d been chest to head high plus sets (jump over to www.realsurf.tv to see the clips I shot from the water), this morning sees the average size considerably reduced. Looks like waist high maybe. The beachy is bigger though and I’d expect you could still find the odd overhead takeoff at south facing beaches.

The average size and swell direction haven’t changed much since mid-day yesterday when they were showing 2 metres from the SSE. Average period at the last report from the buoy was 11 second, but there is some peak stuff at around 14 sec in the mix.

And, according to the Bureau, this long period stuff should re-appear from time to time over the next few days as a series of intense lows pass through our swell window in the southern ocean.

Wind is set to be 13-18 kts from the WNW this morning, increasing to 18-23 this afternoon. And, that should co-incide with another long period pulse’s arrival.

I revisted my long range wrap after some technical difficulties day before yesterday. You can have a listen via the utterz widget down the page on the right.

The short version is that it looks like we should have waves through the weekend, but that tomorrow will be pretty windy.

Go well and get lots of waves!

Hello Friends,

How good is this? Another day of waves opens ahead of us. Yes, it’s smaller again, but there are still sets into the shoulder high range at Dee Why. A reasonable size crowd is out enjoying it too, but I reckon jagging the odd wave wouldn’t be too difficult. The difference between this time yesterday and now is that it’s maybe 0.5 of a metre smaller on average. It’s also around to the east and Huey has nudged the period setting down to 9 sec.

As the day gets started, the wind is not yet a factor.  It’s not set to get up to much either. The current call is for it to wander from the NW around to the SW but not really get much above the 13kt mark on gusts this arvo.

The Bureau has confirmed what the models were showing a few days ago, namely that it’s likely we’ll have another low spinning up just in time for the weekend. It’s not set to be as impressive as last weekend, but it looks as though it should deliver 3-4 metres of 9 sec south swell - and 20-25 kts of SSW wind.

Are we smiling?

Have yourself a top old day and get a few waves if you can.

(D’you tweet? I’m just getting into it as mrRealSurf)