thinking out loud

Hello Friends,

It’s looking  tiny down DY way this morning. At 0730 I couldn’t see anyone in the water from the point to about halfway up to the pole. There wasn’t much wind about, but I’d say you’d want to be very keen to get in given the tininess. In the 8 hours or so since I published my latest vidcast the primary swell direction has abruptly jumped from the NE to SE. The size at sea hasn’t changed much, (it’s about a metre on average) and the 8 sec average period is up just a touch. One intriguing feature in the data (that wasn’t visible when I watched the beach) is a peakperiod component of 14 sec. Even small waves at 14 sec apart can be juicy, so keep an eye out for rogue sets!

The usually terse marine forecast is rather more prolix today, to whit:

The cloud feature on and to the west of Tasmania represents a broad low pressure trough which will amplify into a stronger system in the Tasman Sea during Friday into Saturday. Strong winds will develop about the southern and central coasts by later Friday morning before shifting more southwest during the afternoon and evening as the trough develops. Gale force winds are forecast by later Friday and through into the weekend with winds tending more S/SW and extending throughout. A gradual easing trend is anticipated in the south going into Sunday, but gale force winds look likely to continue in the north throughout the weekend.

The computer wave height models are fluxing around a fair amount as well. It’s now looking as though the south swell ought to be showing its colours by Saturday morning as it begins a rapid build into the 3-4+ m range.  Too bad about the gale force winds… anyway, you can watch the parade of charts and listen to my thoughts if you are so inclined by clicking on the latest vidcast I posted in the news section last night.

Have yourself a top old day and go well!

Hello Friends,

Did you get waves yesterday? If they were any good, you should go back there again today for another look because the swell settings are just about where they were when sun went down. The Bureau says the wind will only be around 10-15 kts from the SW-SE today, so conditions should be glassy and smooth for much of the morning.

Swell in the Sydney region is around the metre mark on average. The power setting is at about 8 seconds, so we aren’t talking huge amounts of juice. At Dee Why for instance, there isn’t really enough to light up the point, but as you wander up the beach toward Longy, the average size gets into the waist high range. Should be fun on your fish or mal but maybe less than entrancing on your shortboard. Spots with good exposure to the south should be copping a little bit more energy, but I’d be surprised if there was anything above the shoulder high mark.

The not-so-great news for east coast surfers is that the models are showing an extended period of great snorkeling and fishing weather coming up. The beachcombing should be brilliant, but it doesn’t look as though anyone will be surfing from about Monday onward. And I’m not too optimistic about Sunday either.

Oh well, one shouldn’t carp. We’ve had weeks of swell, so it’s not too surprising that we’re finally going to cop a stretch of flatness.

Have yourself a top old day and go well with all your plans!